Article first published: Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026, 4 a.m. ET

System type: Tropical storm

System name: Isaias

At 4 a.m. Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center issued its first advisory of the day for the system, stating that Tropical Storm Isaias is in the Gulf of Mexico, 285 miles west of Progreso, Mexico and 580 miles southwest of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. With maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, it is moving to the east-northeast at 8 mph.

Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to strengthen.

Hazards affecting land

Rainfall. Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches through Thursday across coastal portions of the Bay of Campeche with isolated higher amounts possible in the states of Campeche and western Yucatan. From Friday through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, across the northern U.S. Gulf Coast extending from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible.

For a complete forecast of rainfall associated with Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

Wind. Gusty winds are possible in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday.

Surf. Swells are expected to affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents

Source: National Hurricane Center