Article first published: Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026, 1 p.m. ET

System type: Tropical storm

System name: Isaias

At 1 p.m. Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center issued an advisory stating that Isaias was previously a tropical depression has since gained strength and progressed into a tropical storm with winds of 40 mph. The system’s new name was first made public in the 4 a.m. advisory. Tropical Storm Isaias is in the Gulf of Mexico, 255 miles west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico and 520 miles south-southwest of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. The system, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, is moving east-northeast at 8 mph.

“… Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday,” meteorologists observed. They also said “Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Isaias is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday.”

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Storm Surge Watch for Mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown

• Hurricane Watch for Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass

• Tropical Storm Watch for:

• Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line to west of Bay St. Louis

• East of Indian Pass to Aucilla River

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and elsewhere around the U.S. northern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.

Additional watches and warnings could be required for a portion of the U.S. northern Gulf coast later today.

Hazards affecting land

Storm surge. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Ocean Springs, MS to Indian Pass, FL…5-7 ft Mobile Bay…5-7 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS…3-5 ft Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River, FL…3-5 ft Aucilla River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain…1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Wind. Hurricane conditions could begin in the Hurricane Watch area late Friday, and tropical storm conditions could begin in the watches areas midday Friday.

Gusty winds are possible in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday.

Rainfall. Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches through Thursday across coastal portions of the Bay of Campeche with isolated higher amounts possible in the states of Campeche and western Yucatan.

From Friday through the weekend, the system is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, across the central U.S. Gulf Coast extending from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible.

For a complete forecast of rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

Surf. Swells are expected to affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents

Source: National Hurricane Center