Article first published: Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026, 1 a.m. ET

System type: Hurricane, Category 1

System name: Isaias

The National Hurricane Center’s 1 a.m. Thursday update reported that Isaias became a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 75 mph after intensifying from a tropical storm. Category 1 Hurricane Isaias is in the Gulf of Mexico, 180 miles northwest of Progreso, Mexico and 445 miles south-southwest of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. With maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, the hurricane is moving to the east-northeast at 9 mph.

“… Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula later today and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday,” according to meteorologists. They also said “Additional strengthening is expected through early Friday, and Isaias should remain a strong hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Friday night.”

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Storm Surge Warning for Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Steinhatchee River, FL

• Hurricane Warning for Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL

• Tropical Storm Warning for:

• Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS

• East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL

• Storm Surge Watch for Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, FL

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and elsewhere along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.

Hazards affecting land

Storm surge. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Ocean Springs, MS to Indian Pass, FL…5-7 ft Mobile Bay…5-7 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS…3-5 ft Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL…4-6 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain…1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Wind. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area Friday night into early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas on Friday and Friday night.

Gusty winds are possible in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula later today.

Rainfall. Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches through today across coastal portions of the eastern Bay of Campeche with isolated higher amounts possible in the states of Campeche and western Yucatan.

From Friday through the weekend, the system is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, across the central U.S. Gulf Coast extending from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible.

For a complete forecast of rainfall associated with Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

Tornadoes Isolated tornadoes will be possible Friday night in coastal areas of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. The tornado threat will persist into Saturday for eastern Alabama, western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.

Surf. Swells will affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning later today and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents

Source: National Hurricane Center