Article first published: Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026, 10 a.m. ET

System type: Hurricane, Category 1

System name: Isaias

At 10 a.m. Thursday, the National Hurricane Center issued an advisory stating that Category 1 Hurricane Isaias is in the Gulf of Mexico, 170 miles north of Progreso, Mexico and 380 miles south of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. The hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, is moving east-northeast at 10 mph.

“A turn toward the northeast is expected later today followed by a turn northward on Friday,” according to meteorologists. “On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula later today and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday.” They also said “Additional strengthening is expected through early Friday, and Isaias should remain a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast Friday night.”

Yesterday (Wednesday)

Isaias found new strength and had evolved from a tropical storm into a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 75 mph. A hurricane warning and a storm surge warning have been issued by forecasters for portions of the northern gulf coast.

Changes with this advisory

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the Steinhatchee River eastward to the Suwannee River, Florida.

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Storm Surge Warning for Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River

• Hurricane Warning for Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL

• Tropical Storm Warning for:

• Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS

• East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL

• Storm Surge Watch for Suwannee River to Yankeetown

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and elsewhere along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.

Hazards affecting land

Storm surge. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Ocean Springs, MS to Indian Pass, FL…5-7 ft Mobile Bay…5-7 ft Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL…4-6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS…3-5 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Suwannee River, FL…3-5 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Wind. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area Friday night into early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas on Friday and Friday night.

Gusty winds are possible in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula today.

Rainfall Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches through Thursday across coastal portions of the eastern Bay of Campeche with isolated higher amounts possible in the states of Campeche and western Yucatan. From Friday through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches across the central U.S. Gulf Coast extending from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend region. Localized totals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding is possible across the region, with considerable impacts possible across much of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. River flooding is also expected, some of which could be significant.

For a complete forecast of rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

Tornadoes Isolated tornadoes will be possible Friday night in coastal areas of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle and far southwestern Georgia. The tornado threat will continue Saturday for eastern Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida.

Surf. Swells will affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning later today and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents

Source: National Hurricane Center