Article first published: Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025, 10 p.m. ET

System type: Tropical storm

System name: Melissa

The National Hurricane Center’s 10 p.m. Thursday advisory reported that Tropical Storm Melissa is in the Caribbean Sea, 150 miles southeast of Kingston Jamaica and 270 miles southwest of Port Au Prince Haiti. The system, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, is moving north at 3 mph.

“… Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days”, according to forecasters. “Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by rapid intensification this weekend.” They also said “Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by the end of the weekend.”

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Hurricane Watch for:

• Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

• Jamaica

• Tropical Storm Warning in effect for for:

• Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

• Jamaica

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Anyone in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa. A hurricane warning will likely be required for the island of Jamaica on Friday.

Hazards affecting land

Wind. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti and Jamaica beginning on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Haiti and Jamaica on Friday.

Rainfall. Melissa is expected to bring 8 to 14 inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Sunday; however, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected in the southern Dominican Republic and eastern Jamaica, with catastrophic flash flooding and landslides anticipated in southern Haiti.

Across the northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected through Sunday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through Sunday. Flooding impacts may increase across western Jamaica next week.

For a complete forecast of rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

Storm surge. Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of Jamaica by late Friday into Saturday in areas of onshore winds as tropical storm conditions begin to reach the area. However, there is a potential risk of a more significant storm surge, especially along the south coast of Jamaica, early next week. Due to Melissa’s slow motion and large forecast uncertainty, it is still too soon to know exactly how high the storm surge could reach.

Surf. Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents

Source: National Hurricane Center