Article first published: Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025, 4 a.m. ET
Article last updated: Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025, 10 p.m. ET
System type: Hurricane, Category 3
System name: Melissa
The National Hurricane Center’s 10 p.m. Saturday advisory reported that Category 3 Hurricane Melissa is in the Caribbean Sea, 125 miles south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and 280 miles west-southwest of Port Au Prince Haiti. With maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, the hurricane is moving west at 3 mph.
“A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica during the weekend and early next week, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week Continue rapid intensification is forecast during the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity”, forecasters stated about the hurricane. They also said “Melissa is expected to be a major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica early next week.”
Watches and warnings currently in effect
• Hurricane Warning for Jamaica
• Hurricane Watch for:
• Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
• Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.
• Tropical Storm Warning in effect for for Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
Meaning of the different watches and warnings
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Anyone in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Melissa.
Hazards affecting land
Wind. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica by early Sunday morning, with hurricane conditions expected by later on Sunday or on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible within the watch and warning area in Haiti through Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in eastern Cuba on Tuesday into Wednesday.
Rainfall. Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time range precludes exact storm totals. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica.
For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches, are expected into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time range precludes exact storm totals.
For a complete forecast of rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
Storm surge. Life-threatening storm surge is becoming more likely along the south coast of Jamaica later in the weekend or early next week. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba early next week.
Surf. Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days.
Source: National Hurricane Center