Article first published: Friday, Oct. 9, 2026, 4 a.m. ET
Article last updated: Friday, Oct. 9, 2026, 4 p.m. ET
System type: Hurricane, Category 3
System name: Isaias
The National Hurricane Center’s 4 p.m. Friday advisory reported that Isaias became a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 120 mph after intensifying from a Category 2 hurricane. Category 3 Hurricane Isaias is in the Gulf of Mexico, 90 miles south of Pensacola, Florida and 125 miles south-southeast of Mobile, Alabama. With maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, the hurricane is moving to the north at 17 mph.
“… Isaias is expected to make landfall along the coast of the western Florida Panhandle this evening The center is then expected to move across Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley Saturday and Sunday Little change in strength is expected before Isaias makes landfall this evening,” meteorologists wrote about the hurricane. “The center is then expected to move across Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley Saturday and Sunday,” forecasters observed. “Little change in strength is expected before Isaias makes landfall this evening.” They also said “Weakening is expected to begin tonight after landfall, and Isaias is forecast to become post-tropical on Saturday.”
Yesterday (Thursday)
Isaias previously a Category 1 hurricane but has since gained strength and progressed into a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph.
Watches and warnings currently in effect
• Storm Surge Warning for Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River
• Hurricane Warning for Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL
• Tropical Storm Warning for:
• Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS
• East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL
• Storm Surge Watch for Suwannee River to Yankeetown, FL
Meaning of the different watches and warnings
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
Hazards affecting land
Storm surge. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Alabama/Florida Border to Grayton Beach, FL…6-9 ft Grayton Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL…4-7 ft Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL…4-6 ft Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border…4-6 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Suwannee River, FL…3-5 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Dauphin Island, AL…3-5 ft Lower Mobile Bay…3-5 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…2-4 ft Upper Mobile Bay…2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
Wind. Within the Hurricane Warning area, tropical storm conditions are now occurring, and hurricane conditions are expected this evening into early Saturday. Hurricane-force winds are expected to spread inland as far as 100 miles from the coast into southern Alabama. Tropical storm conditions are also occurring in the warning areas.
Rainfall. From Friday through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized totals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend.
Across much of the remainder of the Southeast, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are expected. Localized higher amounts up to 10 inches are possible, especially across the Southern Appalachians and coastal Carolinas. Flash, urban, and river flooding is possible across the region, with considerable impacts likely across much of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. Considerable flash flooding and landslides are also possible across the Southern Appalachians.
For a complete forecast of rainfall associated with Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
Tornadoes. The risk for tornadoes this afternoon in the Florida Panhandle will continue into this evening and tonight across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southern Georgia. The tornado threat will continue Saturday across parts of eastern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the Carolinas.
Surf. Swells from Isaias are affecting much of the Gulf coasts of the United States, Mexico, and western Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents
Source: National Hurricane Center