Article first published: Friday, Oct. 9, 2026, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Friday, Oct. 9, 2026, 1 p.m. ET

System type: Hurricane, Category 3

System name: Isaias

The National Hurricane Center’s 1 p.m. Friday advisory reported that Isaias became a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 120 mph after intensifying from a Category 2 hurricane. Category 3 Hurricane Isaias is in the Gulf of Mexico, 145 miles south of Pensacola, Florida and 125 miles east-southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. With maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, the hurricane is moving to the north-northeast at 16 mph.

“… Isaias is expected to approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast this afternoon and make landfall within the warning area this evening,” according to forecasters. “Fluctuations in intensity are possible through this afternoon, but Isaias is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall this evening.” They also said “Weakening is expected beginning tonight after Isaias makes landfall, and the storm is likely to become post-tropical by late Saturday.”

Yesterday (Thursday)

Isaias became a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph after intensifying from a Category 1 hurricane.

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Storm Surge Warning for Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River

• Hurricane Warning for Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL

• Tropical Storm Warning for:

• Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS

• East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL

• Storm Surge Watch for Suwannee River to Yankeetown, FL

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

Hazards affecting land

Storm surge. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Alabama/Florida Border to Grayton Beach, FL…6-9 ft Grayton Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL…4-7 ft Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL…4-6 ft Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border…4-6 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Suwannee River, FL…3-5 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Dauphin Island, AL…3-5 ft Lower Mobile Bay…3-5 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…2-4 ft Upper Mobile Bay…2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Wind. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning this evening into early Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are now beginning. Hurricane-force winds are expected to spread inland as far as 100 miles from the coast into southern Alabama. Tropical storm conditions are beginning in the warning areas.

Rainfall. Through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized totals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend.

Across much of the remainder of the Southeast, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are expected. Localized higher amounts up to 10 inches are possible, especially across the Southern Appalachians and coastal Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding is possible across the region, with considerable impacts likely across much of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. River flooding is also expected, some of which could be significant.

For a complete forecast of rainfall associated with Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

Tornadoes. A tornado risk will begin this afternoon and continue tonight in coastal areas of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia. The tornado threat will continue Saturday across parts of eastern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

Surf. Swells from Isaias are affecting the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and are spreading northward toward the Gulf Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents

Source: National Hurricane Center