Article first published: Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026, 4 a.m. ET
Article last updated: Friday, Oct. 9, 2026, 1 a.m. ET
System type: Hurricane, Category 2
System name: Isaias
The National Hurricane Center’s 1 a.m. Friday update reported that Isaias found new strength and had evolved from a Category 1 hurricane into a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph. Category 2 Hurricane Isaias is in the Gulf of Mexico, 320 miles north-northeast of Progreso, Mexico and 230 miles south of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. The hurricane is moving to the north-northeast at 14 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph.
“A turn toward the north is expected later today,” according to meteorologists. “On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast later today and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early Saturday.” They also said “Although some weakening is forecast thereafter, Isaias will remain a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast tonight.”
Watches and warnings currently in effect
• Storm Surge Warning for Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River
• Hurricane Warning for Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL
• Tropical Storm Warning for:
• Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS
• East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL
• Storm Surge Watch for Suwannee River to Yankeetown, FL
Meaning of the different watches and warnings
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
Hazards affecting land
Storm surge. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Dauphin Island, AL to Indian Pass, FL…5-7 ft Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL…4-6 ft Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL…4-6 ft Mobile Bay…4-6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS…3-5 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Suwannee River, FL…3-5 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…2-4 ft Yankeetown, FL to Egmont Key, FL…1-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain…1-3 ft Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA…1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
Wind. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area tonight into early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas today and tonight.
Rainfall From today through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized totals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Across the coastal Carolinas, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with localized totals up to 8 inches are possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the remainder of the Southeast. Flash and urban flooding is likely across the region, with considerable impacts possible across much of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. River flooding is also expected, some of which could be significant.
For a complete forecast of rainfall associated with Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
Tornadoes A risk for tornadoes will begin this evening in coastal areas of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and far southwest Georgia. The tornado threat will continue through Saturday for parts of eastern Alabama into Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
Surf. Swells from Isaias are affecting the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and will spread northward toward the Gulf Coast later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents
Source: National Hurricane Center