Article first published: Friday, Oct. 9, 2026, 4 a.m. ET

System type: Hurricane, Category 2

System name: Isaias

At 4 a.m. Friday, the National Hurricane Center released its first advisory of the day for the system, stating that Category 2 Hurricane Isaias is in the Gulf of Mexico, 370 miles north-northeast of Progreso, Mexico and 200 miles south-southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Packing maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, the hurricane is tracking to the north-northeast at 15 mph.

“A turn toward the north is expected later today On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast this afternoon and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early Saturday Isaias is likely to become a major hurricane this morning,” forecasters explained about the hurricane. “On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast this afternoon and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early Saturday,” analysts wrote. “Isaias is likely to become a major hurricane this morning.” They also said “Slight weakening is expected before landfall, but it is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane.”

Yesterday (Thursday)

Isaias became a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph after intensifying from a Category 1 hurricane.

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Storm Surge Warning for Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River

• Hurricane Warning for Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL

• Tropical Storm Warning for:

• Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS

• East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL

• Storm Surge Watch for Suwannee River to Yankeetown, FL

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

Hazards affecting land

Storm surge. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Dauphin Island, AL to Indian Pass, FL…5-7 ft Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL…4-6 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Suwannee River, FL…3-5 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Dauphin Island, AL…3-5 ft Mobile Bay…3-5 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…2-4 ft Yankeetown, FL to Egmont Key, FL…1-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain…1-3 ft Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA…1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Wind. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area tonight into early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas beginning in the next few hours.

Rainfall. Through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized totals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend.

Across much of the remainder of the Southeast, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are expected. Localized higher amounts up to 10 inches are possible, especially across the Southern Appalachians and coastal Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding is likely across the region, with considerable impacts possible across much of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. River flooding is also expected, some of which could be significant.

For a complete forecast of rainfall associated with Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

Tornadoes. A tornado risk will begin late this afternoon and continue tonight in coastal areas of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and far southwest Georgia. The tornado threat will continue Saturday across parts of eastern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

Surf. Swells from Isaias are affecting the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and will spread northward toward the Gulf Coast later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents

Source: National Hurricane Center