Article first published: Monday, Aug. 18, 2025, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Tuesday, Aug. 19, 2025, 1 a.m. ET

System type: Hurricane, Category 3

System name: Erin

As per the National Hurricane Center’s 1 a.m. Tuesday update, Erin became a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 125 mph after intensifying from a Category 4 hurricane. Category 3 Hurricane Erin is in the Atlantic Ocean, 685 miles southwest of Bermuda and 770 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina. With maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, the hurricane is moving to the northwest at 7 mph.

“A turn to the north is forecast later today or tonight On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to move away from the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands this morning and move east of the remainder of the Bahamas later today The hurricane is then expected to move between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by the middle of the week”, forecasters observed. “Fluctuations in strength are expected during the next couple of days.” They also said “However, Erin is likely to remain a dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week.”

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Tropical Storm Warning for:

• Turks and Caicos Islands

• Southeast Bahamas

• Storm Surge Watch for Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

• Tropical Storm Watch for:

• Central Bahamas

• Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, Bermuda, and other parts of the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Erin.

Hazards affecting land

Rainfall. Erin will produce localized areas of heavy rainfall across portions of the southeastern Bahamas into Wednesday. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with storm total amounts to 8 inches, is possible, which could lead to flash flooding and urban flood concerns. Portions of Hispaniola, the central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos should receive an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain as well.

For a complete forecast of rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Wind. Tropical storm conditions are expected for a few more hours across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday.

Surf. Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

Storm surge. Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina…2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.

Source: National Hurricane Center