Article first published: Monday, Oct. 27, 2025, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025, 1 a.m. ET

System type: Hurricane, Category 5

System name: Melissa

According to the National Hurricane Center’s 1 a.m. Tuesday advisory, Melissa was previously a Category 4 hurricane but has since gained strength and developed into a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 160 mph. Category 5 Hurricane Melissa is in the Caribbean Sea, 135 miles southwest of Kingston Jamaica and 310 miles southwest of Guantanamo Cuba. The hurricane is moving to the north-northeast at 2 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph.

“… the core of Melissa is expected to move over Jamaica today, across southeastern Cuba Wednesday morning, and across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday”, according to meteorologists. “Some fluctuations in intensity are likely before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica later today.” They also said “However, Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and will still be at hurricane strength when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.”

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Hurricane Warning for:

• Jamaica

• Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin

• Southeastern and Central Bahamas

• Hurricane Watch for Turks and Caicos Islands

• Tropical Storm Warning for:

• Haiti

• Cuban province of Las Tunas

• Turks and Caicos Islands

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion in Cuba.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.

Hazards affecting land

Wind. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and catastrophic and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected to begin this morning. Within the eyewall, total structural failure is likely, especially in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba today, with hurricane conditions expected in the hurricane warning area starting tonight into Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti later today and Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

Rainfall. Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 12 inches for southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with local amounts to 25 inches, is expected into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected today into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash flooding.

For a complete forecast of rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

Storm surge. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica today. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. On the northwest coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 2 to 4 feet of storm surge above ground level.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late today or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge of 4 to 6 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

Surf. Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next several days, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week.

Source: National Hurricane Center