Article first published: Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025, 10 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025, 1 p.m. ET

System type: Tropical storm

System name: Melissa

At 1 p.m. Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center issued an advisory stating that Tropical Storm Melissa is in the Caribbean Sea, 305 miles south of Port Au Prince Haiti. The system is moving to the west at 14 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.

“A decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north is expected during the next few days”, forecasters stated. “On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to approach the southwestern portion of Haiti and Jamaica later this week.” They also said “Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.”

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Hurricane Watch for Southern coast of Haiti from the border with Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

• Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Anyone in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa.

Hazards affecting land

Wind. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti beginning on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in Jamaica on Thursday or Friday.

Rainfall. Melissa will bring heavy rainfall to Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with totals of 5 to 10 inches expected through Friday. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Friday, but uncertainty regarding the track and forward speed of Melissa reduces confidence in exact amounts. Areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides are possible.

Over Aruba, Puerto Rico and Jamaica rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected through Friday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across Puerto Rico through at least Friday.

For a complete forecast of rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

Surf. Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents

Source: National Hurricane Center