Article first published: Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025, 10 a.m. ET

System type: Tropical storm

System name: Jerry

The National Hurricane Center’s 10 a.m. Thursday update reported that Tropical Storm Jerry is in the Atlantic Ocean, 310 miles east-southeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. With maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, it is moving to the west-northwest at 18 mph.

“… the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands later today and tonight”, according to forecasters. They also said “Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Jerry could become a hurricane by late Friday or Saturday.”

Changes with this advisory

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbuda.

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Tropical Storm Warning for Barbuda

• Tropical Storm Watch for:

• Antigua, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat

• St. Barthelemy and St. Martin

• Sint Maarten

• Saba and St. Eustatius

• Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Anyone in the northern Leeward Islands and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry.

Hazards affecting land

Wind. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Barbuda later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the northern Leeward Islands within the watch area later today into Friday.

Rainfall. Through Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain with local storm total maxima to 6 inches are expected across the Leeward and Virgin Islands. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerry combined with local orographic effects may result in up to 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated 6 inches.

For a complete forecast of rainfall and flash flooding associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Surf. Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to reach the Leeward and Windward Islands. These swells will spread westward toward the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, then toward the rest of the Greater Antilles over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

Source: National Hurricane Center