Article first published: Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025, 4 a.m. ET

System type: Tropical storm

System name: Melissa

The National Hurricane Center’s 4 a.m. Thursday advisory reported that Tropical Storm Melissa is in the Caribbean Sea, 240 miles south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and 300 miles southwest of Port Au Prince Haiti. The system, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, is moving west-northwest at 3 mph.

“… Melissa is expected to be nearer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days”, according to forecasters. “Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so, but significant strengthening is expected by late Friday and over the weekend.” They also said “Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days.”

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Hurricane Watch for Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

• Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Anyone in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa.

Hazards affecting land

Wind. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti beginning on Friday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in Jamaica on Friday.

Rainfall. Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Sunday; however, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are possible.

Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Sunday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Sunday.

For a complete forecast of rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

Surf. Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents

Source: National Hurricane Center