Article first published: Sunday, Sept. 28, 2025, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Sunday, Sept. 28, 2025, 10 a.m. ET

System type: Tropical depression

At 10 a.m. Sunday, the National Hurricane Center issued an advisory stating that the tropical depression is in the Atlantic Ocean, 300 miles northwest of the Eastern Tip of Cuba and 95 miles west of the Central Bahamas. The system, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, is moving north at 7 mph.

“… the center of the system is expected to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas later today and tonight and then turn east-northeastward, moving away from the southeastern U.S. by the middle part of this week”, analysts noted. They also said “Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday.”

Yesterday (Saturday)

The tropical depression became a tropical depression with sustained winds of 35 mph after intensifying from a potential tropical cyclone.

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Tropical Storm Warning for:

• Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador

• Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand Bahama Island

• Tropical Storm Watch for East coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Anyone in the Bahamas and along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system.

Hazards affecting land

Wind. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas beginning later today and in the northwestern Bahamas late this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the east coast of Florida on Monday.

Rainfall. Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 6 inches across eastern Cuba and 6 to 12 inches across the northwest Bahamas through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba. Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 7 inches are expected into Wednesday morning across portions of the coastal Carolinas. This rainfall could result in flash, urban, and isolated, minor river flooding. Changes in the forecast track could result in further adjustments to these rainfall totals.

For a complete forecast of rainfall and flash flooding associated with this system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

Storm surge. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles… Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River,

South Carolina…1 to 2 ft

Surf. Swells generated by this system and Hurricane Humberto will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to much of the east coast of the U.S. early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents

Source: National Hurricane Center