Article first published: Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025, 10 a.m. ET

System type: Hurricane, Category 4

System name: Melissa

The National Hurricane Center’s 10 a.m. Sunday advisory reported that Melissa became a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 140 mph after intensifying from a Category 3 hurricane. Category 4 Hurricane Melissa is in the Caribbean Sea, 110 miles south of Kingston Jamaica and 280 miles south-southwest of Guantanamo Cuba. With maximum sustained winds of 140 mph, the hurricane is moving to the west at 3 mph.

“… the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica on Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday”, forecasters wrote about the hurricane. “Additional intensification is forecast over the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity.” They also said “Melissa is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday morning and southeastern Cuba late Tuesday.”

Yesterday (Saturday)

There were numerous changes, particularly at night. Melissa became a Category 1 hurricane, before growing into a Category 2 hurricane. Then, it was upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph.

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Hurricane Warning for Jamaica

• Hurricane Watch for:

• Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

• Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

• Tropical Storm Warning in effect for for Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Anyone in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands,

And Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa. Additional watches and warnings could be required later today.

Hazards affecting land

Wind. Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in Jamaica, with hurricane conditions expected to begin by Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Haiti today. The potential for hurricane conditions in the watch area in Haiti have diminished for today, but there is still a possibility of hurricane conditions occurring there on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in eastern Cuba on Tuesday into Wednesday.

Rainfall. Melissa is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with local amounts to 20 inches, is expected by Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash flooding. Over the Turks and Caicos, total rainfall of 1 to 4 inches is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

For a complete forecast of rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

Storm surge. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday.

Surf. Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Source: National Hurricane Center