Article first published: Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025, 4 a.m. ET
Article last updated: Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025, 1 a.m. ET
System type: Hurricane, Category 3
System name: Melissa
The National Hurricane Center’s 1 a.m. Sunday advisory reported that Category 3 Hurricane Melissa is in the Caribbean Sea, 125 miles south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and 295 miles west-southwest of Port Au Prince Haiti. With maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, the hurricane is moving to the west-southwest at 5 mph.
“… the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica through Tuesday, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of the week”, forecasters wrote about the hurricane. “Continued rapid intensification is forecast during the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity.” They also said “Melissa is expected to be a major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday.”
Watches and warnings currently in effect
• Hurricane Warning for Jamaica
• Hurricane Watch for:
• Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
• Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.
• Tropical Storm Warning in effect for for Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
Meaning of the different watches and warnings
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Anyone in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Melissa.
Hazards affecting land
Wind. Tropical storm conditions are likely beginning in Jamaica,
With hurricane conditions expected by Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Haiti today. The potential for hurricane conditions in the watch area in Haiti have diminished for today, but there is still a possibility of hurricane conditions occurring there on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in eastern Cuba on Tuesday into Wednesday.
Rainfall. Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time range precludes exact storm totals. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica.
For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches, are expected into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time range precludes exact storm totals.
For a complete forecast of rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
Storm surge. Life-threatening storm surge is becoming more likely along the south coast of Jamaica during the next few days. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level,
Near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall.
This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday.
Surf. Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next several days.
Source: National Hurricane Center