Article first published: Saturday, Aug. 16, 2025, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Saturday, Aug. 16, 2025, 1 p.m. ET

System type: Hurricane, Category 5

System name: Erin

The National Hurricane Center’s 1 p.m. Saturday advisory reported that Category 5 Hurricane Erin is in the Atlantic Ocean, 110 miles north of Anguilla and 205 miles east-northeast of San Juan Puerto Rico. The hurricane is moving to the west at 16 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph.

“A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight with a decrease in forward speed, and a turn toward the north is expected to occur early next week”, analysts wrote about the hurricane. “On the forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to move just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Sunday.” They also said “Fluctuations in intensity are expected for the rest of the weekend.”

Yesterday (Friday)

Erin changed first into a Category 1 hurricane and then into a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 160 mph.

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Tropical Storm Watch for:

• St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

• Sint Maarten

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, as well as in the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.

Hazards affecting land

Rainfall. The outer bands of Erin are expected to continue producing areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible.

For a complete forecast of rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Wind. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur elsewhere over portions of the northern Leeward and Virgin Islands.

Surf. Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

Source: National Hurricane Center