Article first published: Saturday, Aug. 16, 2025, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Saturday, Aug. 16, 2025, 7 a.m. ET

System type: Hurricane, Category 4

System name: Erin

The National Hurricane Center’s 7 a.m. Saturday advisory reported that Category 4 Hurricane Erin is in the Atlantic Ocean, 120 miles northeast of Anguilla. The hurricane is moving to the west-northwest at 20 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph.

“A turn toward the north is expected to occur early next week”, forecasters wrote about the hurricane. “On the forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to move just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend.” They also said “Continued rapid strengthening is expected today, followed by fluctuations in intensity through the weekend.”

Yesterday (Friday)

Erin changed first into a Category 1 hurricane and then into a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 145 mph.

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Tropical Storm Watch for:

• St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

• Sint Maarten

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, as well as in the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.

Hazards affecting land

Rainfall. The outer bands of Erin are expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible.

For a complete forecast of rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Wind. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area later today.

Surf. Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

Source: National Hurricane Center