Article first published: Saturday, Aug. 16, 2025, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Saturday, Aug. 16, 2025, 10 p.m. ET

System type: Hurricane, Category 4

System name: Erin

The National Hurricane Center’s 10 p.m. Saturday advisory reported that Category 4 Hurricane Erin is in the Atlantic Ocean, 145 miles north-northeast of San Juan Puerto Rico and 395 miles east of Grand Turk Island. The hurricane is moving to the west-northwest at 14 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph.

“A turn more northward is expected to occur on Monday into Tuesday”, according to forecasters. “On the forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to begin moving away from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, and pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas Sunday night and Monday.” They also said “Fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next day or two due to inner-core structural changes with Erin.”

Yesterday (Friday)

Erin became a Category 1 hurricane before it progressed to a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph.

Changes with this advisory

The Meteorological Service of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The Meteorological Service of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Sint Maarten.

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Tropical Storm Watch for Turks and Caicos Islands

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36-48 hours in the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.

Hazards affecting land

Rainfall. The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 8 inches, are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible.

For a complete forecast of rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Wind. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning late Sunday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur elsewhere over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Sunday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may also occur over the southeastern Bahamas beginning late Sunday.

Surf. Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

Source: National Hurricane Center