Article first published: Saturday, Aug. 16, 2025, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Saturday, Aug. 16, 2025, 7 p.m. ET

System type: Hurricane, Category 4

System name: Erin

The National Hurricane Center’s 7 p.m. Saturday advisory reported that Category 4 Hurricane Erin is in the Atlantic Ocean, 160 miles northwest of Anguilla and 150 miles northeast of San Juan Puerto Rico. The hurricane is moving to the west at 15 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph.

“A turn towards the west-northwest is expected later tonight with a decrease in forward speed, and a turn towards the north is expected to occur early next week”, according to forecasters. “On the forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to move just north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Sunday, and pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas Sunday night and Monday.” They also said “Some fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next couple of days due to inner-core structural changes.”

Yesterday (Friday)

Erin changed first into a Category 1 hurricane and then into a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 150 mph.

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Tropical Storm Watch for:

• St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

• Sint Maarten

• Turks and Caicos Islands

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours in the Leeward Islands and in the next 48 hours in the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, as well as in the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.

Hazards affecting land

Rainfall. The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible.

For a complete forecast of rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Wind. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Leeward Islands through tonight, and in the watch area in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning on Sunday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur elsewhere over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Sunday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may also occur over the southeastern Bahamas beginning on Sunday.

Surf. Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

Source: National Hurricane Center