Article first published: Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2025, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2025, 7 p.m. ET

System type: Tropical storm

System name: Melissa

The National Hurricane Center’s 7 p.m. Wednesday advisory reported that Tropical Storm Melissa is in the Caribbean Sea, 330 miles south-southwest of Port Au Prince Haiti and 300 miles south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica. The system, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, is moving west at 1 mph.

“A slow forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest or north-northwest is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a westward turn by this weekend”, analysts observed. “On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to be nearer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti later this week.” They also said “Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Melissa could become a hurricane by Friday, with more substantial intensification forecast by this weekend.”

Forecasters alert: a hurricane watch in effect for portions of Haiti.

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Hurricane Watch for Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

• Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Anyone in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa.

Hazards affecting land

Wind. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti beginning on Friday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in Jamaica late on Thursday or on Friday.

Rainfall. Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday. However, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are possible.

Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Saturday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Saturday.

For a complete forecast of rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

Surf. Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents

Source: National Hurricane Center