Article first published: Friday, Oct. 24, 2025, 4 a.m. ET
Article last updated: Friday, Oct. 24, 2025, 1 p.m. ET
System type: Tropical storm
System name: Melissa
At 1 p.m. Friday, the National Hurricane Center issued an advisory stating that Tropical Storm Melissa is in the Caribbean Sea, 230 miles southeast of Kingston Jamaica and 250 miles southwest of Port Au Prince Haiti. The system, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, is moving east-southeast at 2 mph.
“A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or just south of Jamaica early next week and could be near eastern Cuba by the middle of next week Additional strengthening is forecast today, followed by rapid intensification this weekend”, forecasters stated. They also said “Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by Sunday.”
Watches and warnings currently in effect
• Hurricane Watch for:
• Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
• Jamaica
• Tropical Storm Warning in effect for for:
• Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
• Jamaica
Meaning of the different watches and warnings
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Anyone in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Melissa. A hurricane warning may be required for Jamaica later today.
Hazards affecting land
Wind. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti later this weekend and Jamaica beginning late this weekend or early next week. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Haiti tonight or Saturday and in Jamaica later this weekend.
Rainfall. Melissa is expected to bring 10 to 20 inches of rain to portions of southwestern Haiti and eastern Jamaica through Monday, with locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches are expected across the rest of southern Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Monday. However, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected in the southern Dominican Republic and eastern Jamaica, with catastrophic flash flooding and landslides anticipated in southern Haiti.
Across portions of northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected through Monday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible. Flooding impacts will likely increase across western Jamaica next week.
For a complete forecast of rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
Storm surge. Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of Jamaica by Saturday in areas of onshore winds as tropical storm conditions begin to reach the area. However, there is a potential risk of a more significant storm surge, especially along the south coast of Jamaica, early next week. Due to Melissa’s slow motion and large forecast uncertainty, it is still too soon to know exactly how high the storm surge could reach.
Surf. Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days.
Source: National Hurricane Center