Article first published: Monday, Oct. 27, 2025, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Monday, Oct. 27, 2025, 1 p.m. ET

System type: Hurricane, Category 5

System name: Melissa

At 1 p.m. Monday, the National Hurricane Center issued an advisory stating that Melissa was previously a Category 4 hurricane but has since gained strength and developed into a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 160 mph. Category 5 Hurricane Melissa is in the Caribbean Sea, 145 miles southwest of Kingston Jamaica and 325 miles southwest of Guantanamo Cuba. Packing maximum sustained winds of 175 mph, the hurricane is tracking west-northwest at 3 mph.

“A slow turn toward the northwest and north is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed on Tuesday On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move over Jamaica tonight and early Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday Some fluctuations in intensity are likely before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica on Tuesday”, forecasters observed. They also said “However, Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely powerful major hurricane, and will still be at hurricane strength when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.”

Yesterday (Sunday)

Melissa previously a Category 3 hurricane but has since gained strength and progressed into a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 140 mph.

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Hurricane Warning for:

• Jamaica

• Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

• Hurricane Watch for:

• Southeastern and central Bahamas

• Turks and Caicos Islands

• Tropical Storm Warning for:

• Haiti

• Cuban province of Las Tunas

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion in Cuba.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands later today or tonight. Interests in Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Melissa.

Hazards affecting land

Wind. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and catastrophic and life-threatening hurricane-force wind conditions are expected to begin tonight and continue into early Tuesday. Within the eyewall, total structural failure is likely, especially in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba on Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected to begin in the hurricane warning area by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible in the southeastern and central Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands, on Wednesday.

Rainfall. Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches for southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 15 to 20 inches, with local higher amounts, is expected by Monday into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash flooding.

For a complete forecast of rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

Storm surge. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica tonight and on Tuesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. On the northwest coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 1 to 3 feet of storm surge above ground level.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge of 4 to 6 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

Surf. Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next several days, and the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Source: National Hurricane Center