Article first published: Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025, 10 a.m. ET

System type: Hurricane, Category 5

System name: Melissa

According to the National Hurricane Center’s 10 a.m. Tuesday advisory, Category 5 Hurricane Melissa is in the Caribbean Sea, 40 miles southeast of Negril Jamaica and 235 miles southwest of Guantanamo Cuba. The hurricane is moving to the north-northeast at 9 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph.

“… the core of Melissa is expected to make landfall on Jamaica during the next couple of hours, move across southeastern Cuba early Wednesday morning, and move across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday”, according to meteorologists. “Little change in strength is expected before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica.” They also said “Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and it will still be a strong hurricane when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.”

Yesterday (Monday)

Melissa found new strength and had evolved from a Category 4 hurricane into a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 160 mph.

Changes with this advisory

The Government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the province of Las Tunas and a Tropical Storm Warning for the province of Camaguey.

The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the Turks and Caicos islands.

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Hurricane Warning for:

• Jamaica

• Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

• Southeastern and Central Bahamas

• Tropical Storm Warning for:

• Haiti

• Cuban province of Camaguey

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Jamaica should remain in a safe shelter. In the warning area in Cuba and the Bahamas, preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa. Watches could be required later today or tonight.

Hazards affecting land

Wind. Catastrophic hurricane-force winds are spreading over Jamaica within the eyewall of Melissa. Total structural failure is likely near the path of Melissa, especially in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger. Do not venture out in the eye as winds will rapidly increase within the backside of the eyewall.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba this afternoon, with hurricane conditions expected in the hurricane warning area starting tonight into Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti later today and Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

Rainfall. Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches with localized maximum to 12 inches for southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with local amounts to 25 inches, is expected into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, rain is expected to develop later today and continue into Wednesday. Total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected to result in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and Caicos rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect Bermuda Thursday night.

For a complete forecast of rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

Storm surge. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica today. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. On the northwest coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 2 to 4 feet of storm surge above ground level.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late today or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and 2 to 4 ft above normally dry ground in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti.

Surf. Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next day or two, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week.

Source: National Hurricane Center