Article first published: Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Monday, Oct. 27, 2025, 1 a.m. ET

System type: Hurricane, Category 4

System name: Melissa

At 1 a.m. Monday, the National Hurricane Center issued an advisory stating that Melissa found new strength and had evolved from a Category 3 hurricane into a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 140 mph. Category 4 Hurricane Melissa is in the Caribbean Sea, 130 miles south-southwest of Kingston Jamaica and 315 miles south-southwest of Guantanamo Cuba. Packing maximum sustained winds of 150 mph, the hurricane is tracking west at 5 mph.

“A turn to the north and northeast is expected today and on Tuesday On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica tonight and Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday Additional intensification is forecast today, followed by fluctuations in intensity before Melissa reaches Jamaica”, forecasters observed. They also said “Melissa is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica and southeastern Cuba.”

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Hurricane Warning for:

• Jamaica

• Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

• Tropical Storm Warning for:

• Haiti

• Cuban province of Las Tunas

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion in Cuba.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in the southeastern and central Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.

Additional watches and warnings are likely today.

Hazards affecting land

Wind. Tropical storm conditions are occuring in Jamaica, and hurricane conditions are expected to begin tonight. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba by Tuesday afternoon, with hurricane conditions expected to begin in the hurricane warning area by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Rainfall. Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches for southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with local amounts to 20 inches, is expected today into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash flooding.

For a complete forecast of rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

Storm surge. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica late today through Tuesday morning. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Surf. Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next several days, and the Bahamas and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Source: National Hurricane Center