Article first published: Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025, 10 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2025, 1 a.m. ET

System type: Tropical storm

System name: Melissa

The National Hurricane Center’s 1 a.m. Wednesday advisory reported that Tropical Storm Melissa is in the Caribbean Sea, 325 miles south-southwest of Port Au Prince Haiti. The system, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, is moving west at 12 mph.

“A decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north is expected during the next few days”, according to meteorologists. “On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti later this week.” They also said “Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.”

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Hurricane Watch for Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

• Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Anyone in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa.

Hazards affecting land

Wind. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti beginning late on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in Jamaica on Thursday or Friday.

Rainfall. Melissa is forecast to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to southern Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic through Friday, with locally higher amounts possible. Across eastern Jamaica, 4 to 8 inches of rain are expected, also with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Friday; however, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant flash flooding and landslides are possible.

Across the northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected through Friday. For Aruba, western Jamaica, and Puerto Rico, 1 to 3 inches are expected through the same period. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Friday.

For a complete forecast of rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

Surf. Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents

Source: National Hurricane Center