Article first published: Saturday, Sept. 27, 2025, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Saturday, Sept. 27, 2025, 7 a.m. ET

System type: Potential tropical cyclone

The National Hurricane Center’s 7 a.m. Saturday advisory reported that the potential tropical cyclone is in the Atlantic Ocean, 170 miles northwest of the Eastern Tip of Cuba and 110 miles south of the Central Bahamas. It is moving to the northwest at 7 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.

The potential tropical cyclone is expected to become a tropical storm.

Forecasters issued a tropical storm watch and a tropical storm warning for portions of the Bahamas.

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Tropical Storm Warning for:

• Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador

• Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand Bahama Island

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

Anyone in the Bahamas and along the southeast coast of the United States from Florida to North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system.

Hazards affecting land

Wind. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas beginning tonight or early Sunday and in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.

Rainfall. The disturbance is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum totals of 16 inches in eastern Cuba, and 4 to 8 inches of rain in the Bahamas. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba,

Hispaniola, and Jamaica.

Moisture from the disturbance will lead to a threat of heavy rainfall well to the north across portions of the Southeast U.S. and Virginia into early next week which could cause flash, urban, and river flooding.

For a complete forecast of rainfall and flash flooding associated with the system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

Storm surge. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

Surf. Swells generated by both this system and Hurricane Humberto will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to portions of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents

Source: National Hurricane Center