Article first published: Sunday, Aug. 17, 2025, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Sunday, Aug. 17, 2025, 7 p.m. ET

System type: Hurricane, Category 3

System name: Erin

The National Hurricane Center’s 7 p.m. Sunday advisory reported that Category 3 Hurricane Erin is in the Atlantic Ocean, 310 miles northwest of San Juan Puerto Rico and 155 miles east-northeast of Grand Turk Island. With maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, the hurricane is moving west-northwest at 13 mph.

“… the core of Erin is expected to pass to the east and northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight into Monday”, forecasters observed. “Some increase in size and strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.” They also said “Erin is forecast to remain a large and dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week.”

Yesterday (Saturday)

There were many developments. Erin initially changed into a Category 3 hurricane, followed by turning into a Category 4 hurricane. Then, it transformed into a Category 5 hurricane and was later downgraded to a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 125 mph.

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Tropical Storm Warning for:

• Turks and Caicos Islands

• Southeast Bahamas

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the central Bahamas, the North Carolina Outer Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

Hazards affecting land

Rainfall. The outer bands of Erin continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches are expected across Puerto Rico through Monday. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast over the Turks and Caicos and the eastern Bahamas including San Salvador Island through Tuesday. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible.

For a complete forecast of rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Wind. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southeast Bahamas late tonight into Monday.

Surf. Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of the week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

Storm surge. Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

Source: National Hurricane Center