Article first published: Sunday, Aug. 17, 2025, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Sunday, Aug. 17, 2025, 10 a.m. ET

System type: Hurricane, Category 3

System name: Erin

The National Hurricane Center’s 10 a.m. Sunday advisory reported that Category 3 Hurricane Erin is in the Atlantic Ocean, 200 miles north-northwest of San Juan Puerto Rico and 240 miles east of Grand Turk Island. With maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, the hurricane is moving west-northwest at 13 mph.

“… the core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Monday”, meteorologists wrote about the hurricane. They also said “Some fluctuation in intensity are likely over the next couple of days, but Erin is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week.”

Yesterday (Saturday)

There were many developments. Erin initially changed into a Category 3 hurricane, followed by turning into a Category 4 hurricane. Then, it transformed into a Category 5 hurricane and was later downgraded to a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 125 mph.

Watches and warnings currently in effect

• Tropical Storm Warning for Turks and Caicos Islands

• Tropical Storm Watch for Southeast Bahamas

Meaning of the different watches and warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the central Bahamas, the North Carolina Outer Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

Hazards affecting land

Rainfall. The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall today across Puerto Rico. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are expected across Puerto Rico through Monday, as well as the Turks and Caicos, and the eastern Bahamas through San Salvador Island through Tuesday. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible.

For a complete forecast of rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Wind. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the warning area in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Southeast Bahamas tonight and Monday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical storm force could occur over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and across the central Bahamas Monday and Tuesday.

Surf. Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of the week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

Storm surge. Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

Source: National Hurricane Center